Free heating oil tool · Updated 5 August 2026
A 1,200 litre tank at 30 percent holds about 360 litres, roughly 29 winter days of heating. With the UK average at 92.5p on 5 August 2026 and prices risen 0.4p over 30 days, the honest call here is order now, because your deadline is close.
Using today's UK average of 92.5p per litre, surveyed on 5 August 2026. Change your tank details below.
This example is computed as of the survey date, 5 August 2026, at the average of 92.5p per litre. The calculator above uses your device's current date, so its dates will differ if you open it later.
Take a 1,200 litre tank sitting at 30 percent in early winter, in a home that uses about 2200 litres a year. That is 360 litres in the tank now. Using the illustrative seasonal model, winter takes half the year's oil across 90 days, so daily use is around 12.2 litres a day. Dividing 360 by 12.2 gives roughly 29 days of heating left.
A delivery needs about 7 days, and we add a 3 day buffer, so the latest safe order date is 10 days before run-out. With only 29 days of oil left, that deadline is very close, so safety wins and the recommendation is order now. To reach a safe 85 percent fill you would order 660 litres (1020 litres less the 360 already in the tank).
At today's average of 92.5p including 5 percent VAT, that 660 litre order costs about £641. Prices have risen 0.4p over the last 30 days. If that same movement simply continued, waiting 30 days would cost around £644, but the trend can reverse at any time, so this is illustrative, not a prediction.
| Situation | Days of oil left | 30-day trend | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nearly empty in winter | Under 14 | Any | Order now |
| Half a tank, prices firming | Around 30 | Rising | Order now |
| Comfortable, late summer | 40 to 60 | Flat | Order within N days |
| Full tank, prices easing | Over 60 | Falling | You can wait |
The seasonal share is an illustrative model, stated as such wherever it is used. Price movements cannot be predicted. This table compares your run-out deadline against the recent trend, it is not a forecast.
days_left = oil_now / daily_use
daily_use = annual_litres * seasonal_share / days_in_season
(winter share = 0.50, illustrative model, verified 2026-07-28)
latest_safe = runout_date - lead_days - safety_buffer
lead_days = 7 days (verified 2026-07-28)
safety_buffer = 3 days (verified 2026-07-28)
order_litres = tank * 0.85 - oil_now (fill to 85%)
cost_today = order_litres * 92.5p / 100 * (1 + 0.05)
DECISION (deadline versus recent trend, not a forecast):
if days_left < lead + 7 -> order now
else if 30-day trend rising -> order now
else if seasonal rising & days<45 -> order now
else if days_left > 60 & falling -> you can wait
else -> order within N days | Figure | Value | Source | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| lead days default | 7 days | Compare My Heating Oil supplier survey, median standard delivery lead time, July 2026 | 2026-07-28 |
| safety buffer days | 3 days | Compare My Heating Oil editorial policy, order-by safety margin | 2026-07-28 |
| tank safe fill pct | 0.85 ratio | OFTEC guidance: tanks are filled to 80-90% of stated capacity to allow expansion | 2026-07-28 |
| seasonal share | see page | Illustrative seasonal model. No authoritative UK source publishes a domestic kerosene seasonal split; this model is stated as illustrative on every page that uses it. | 2026-07-28 |
| vat domestic | 0.05 ratio | VAT Act 1994 Schedule 7A Group 1, domestic fuel reduced rate | 2026-07-28 |
Your deadline dominates. If you are close to empty, no trend matters: running dry risks air in the fuel line, a boiler lockout and an emergency callout. That is why the safety rule always wins over any view about prices.
Lead time varies by area. Our survey median is 7 days, but remote rural postcodes in Scotland, Wales and the far South West can be longer, especially in a cold snap when every tanker is busy. A longer lead time pushes your latest safe order date earlier.
The recent trend is only recent. Heating oil tracks crude oil with a lag of a few weeks. A 30-day move tells you what has happened, not what happens next. A falling trend can turn on a geopolitical headline, so we never present it as a forecast.
Season pushes demand. From late summer into winter, demand and prices tend to firm as households fill up. If you have under 45 days of oil and winter is coming, ordering sooner reduces the risk of both a price rise and a delivery queue.
Order size affects the price per litre. Filling to 85 percent in one delivery usually beats several small top-ups, because larger orders cost less per litre. The tool prefills the litres needed to reach a safe fill so your quote reflects the right volume.
When the answer is order now, this is the moment prices matter most. Compare local suppliers for your postcode and lock in before your deadline.
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